Heuristics That Almost Always Work An Article by Scott Alexander astralcodexten.substack.com Sometimes there’s a Heuristic That Almost Always Works, like “this technology won’t change everything” or “there won’t be a hurricane tomorrow”. And sometimes the rare exceptions are so important to spot that we charge experts with the task. But the heuristics are so hard to beat that the experts themselves might be tempted to secretly rely on them, while publicly pretending to use more subtle forms of expertise. …Maybe this is because the experts are stupid and lazy. Or maybe it’s social pressure: failure because you didn’t follow a well-known heuristic that even a rock can get right is more humiliating than failure because you didn’t predict a subtle phenomenon that nobody else predicted either. Or maybe it’s because false positives are more common (albeit less important) than false negatives, and so over any “reasonable” timescale the people who never give false positives look more accurate and get selected for. expertiseheuristicsprediction
The trend is your friend 'til the bend at the end A Fragment by Noah Smith noahpinion.substack.com In the past, GDP and resources use have always been tightly correlated. But this is just drawing a line through some data — it’s not based on any deep theory. And in fact, these correlations can change very quickly. Just as one example, here’s energy use versus GDP since 1949. If you were sitting in 1970, you could look at this curve and claim, very confidently, that economic growth requires concomitant increases in energy use. And you’d be wrong. Because the trend is your friend til the bend at the end. datastatisticspredictioneconomics
Manifesto for Agile Software Development A Definition agilemanifesto.org We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work we have come to value: Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more. Deliver early and continuouslyWelcome changing requirementsSelf-organizing teamsTechnical excellence and good designAgility and sustainability+7 More agileprocesssoftware
Deliver early and continuously Our highest priority is to satisfy the customer through early and continuous delivery of valuable software.
Welcome changing requirements Welcome changing requirements, even late in development. Agile processes harness change for the customer's competitive advantage. A late change in requirements is a competitive advantage planning
Self-organizing teams The best architectures, requirements, and designs emerge from self-organizing teams.
Technical excellence and good design Continuous attention to technical excellence and good design enhances agility. craft
Agility and sustainability Agile processes promote sustainable development. The sponsors, developers, and users should be able to maintain a constant pace indefinitely.
The amount of work not done Simplicity—the art of maximizing the amount of work not done—is essential. -2000 Lines Of Code simplicity
Build projects around motivated individuals Build projects around motivated individuals. Give them the environment and support they need, and trust them to get the job done. On ValueOn Talent
Deliver working software frequently Deliver working software frequently, from a couple of weeks to a couple of months, with a preference to the shorter timescale.
Business people and developers Business people and developers must work together daily throughout the project. collaboration
Face-to-face conversations The most efficient and effective method of conveying information to and within a development team is face-to-face conversation. teamwork
Reflect, tune, adjust At regular intervals, the team reflects on how to become more effective, then tunes and adjusts its behavior accordingly.