How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity.
The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data.
Sometimes there’s a Heuristic That Almost Always Works, like “this technology won’t change everything” or “there won’t be a hurricane tomorrow”.
And sometimes the rare exceptions are so important to spot that we charge experts with the task. But the heuristics are so hard to beat that the experts themselves might be tempted to secretly rely on them, while publicly pretending to use more subtle forms of expertise.
…Maybe this is because the experts are stupid and lazy. Or maybe it’s social pressure: failure because you didn’t follow a well-known heuristic that even a rock can get right is more humiliating than failure because you didn’t predict a subtle phenomenon that nobody else predicted either. Or maybe it’s because false positives are more common (albeit less important) than false negatives, and so over any “reasonable” timescale the people who never give false positives look more accurate and get selected for.
Besides being unlikely to work for you even if someone is able to describe what makes their writing tick, most advice is written by people who don't understand how their writing works. This may be difficult to see for writing if you haven't spent a lot of time analyzing writing, but it's easy to see this is true if you've taken a bunch of dance classes or had sports instruction that isn't from a very good coach. If you watch, for example, the median dance instructor and listen to their instructions, you'll see that their instructions are quite different from what they actually do. People who listen and follow instructions instead of attempting to copy what the instructor is doing will end up doing the thing completely wrong. Most writing advice similarly fails to capture what's important.
When a space resonates with our humanity, when it feels really pleasant or splendid and beautiful—when you place yourself in such an environment, I've always believed that people will be drawn in. So I guess you could say it's this sense that I try to reflect in the plans; I believe that this will lead in the right direction, to an honest lifestyle.
Mrs. Shimada is very cheerful, and Mr. Shimada is very intelligent; he is able to perceive things objectively, and discern what is precious. I get the sense they live critically, evaluating what is important. Keeping these characteristics in mind, I think about what kind of plan should be provided, in what proportions, and in what kind of house—to best suit these people. I'm constantly reminded of their faces as I prepare the plans. I'm always thinking about human happiness. If it doesn't make you happy, I don't think it's worth building.
I've been doing this for decades, so I've found tools that can't get any better. Tools by a good blacksmith cut well for the entire day, as well as the next; occasionally, even on the third day. I'll think, maybe I should sharpen soon, even though it's still cutting okay.
So that's what it's like — it's all about how good your tools are.
What of machines and prefabrication? How do they compare?
Well, the machine has its limits. We, using handcrafted methods, do things that machines cannot do. Of course, it's not fast like a machine. And in complicated areas like here, things wouldn't go the same using a machine as it would by hand.
We use numerous variations of all these connecting and splicing joints. Using a machine, [the wood joints] can all be made uniform, but really, we need to consider whether that's a good thing. It's better to make each mechanism and joint by considering what's suitable for each unique condition.
I suspect that these tools and these shapes each have their own era. And, well—recently, mass production has made fabrication more practical by using machines, and producing joints that are even easier and faster. Currently, [composite joints] are the most practical—economically as well. That's probably how it became so simple.
The precision [of a prefabricated joint] is by no means bad; a prefabricated joint is more precise than one made by hand with poor skills. Of course, with craftsmen, some are good; others, not so good. It's fine if only people with excellent skills make these joints and build houses; but occasionally, you'll get someone who doesn't. In this case, there's a possibility that prefabrication will provide a more uniform, better outcome.
With prefabrication, they don't really have as much variety in types of joints. Most splicing joints are kama-tsugi, and most connecting joints are ari of a dovetail type; it's even all the same dovetail. In comparison, we use roughly ten times that in variety—perhaps more than ten times.
You have something that is fast, easy, and cheap...
Tōru Abo: Yes, the question is which is better in comparison. I mean, there's no point having a joint made without precision. If you can't chisel with a certain degree of accuracy, there's no point cutting by hand. We often say, "Work accurately and precisely." It's labor-intensive and costs some money, but it's overwhelmingly stronger. The structure becomes more solid.
The kanawa-tsugi allows for easy replacements, without having to raise the building a great deal. However, these days buildings are demolished in less than 30 or so years, so we live in an era where such measures aren't necessary. Because we're living in an era where you demolish the house before things are replaced, we don't have to do this. But in doing so, the two wood members fit together smoothly; the fit becomes incredibly good. This splicing joint, it's surprisingly rigid once assembled; so, even in an era where we have foundations like these, we still use the kanawa-tsugi.
If you consider the inheritance of skills, we can keep this heritage by having young people do the work properly, as they did in the past. If you don't do this, or you become too practical, you'd only make simple things. It's very low tech, this inheritance of skills—using carpentry tools to do manual work. We deliberately put effort into these things, completing work properly in unseen areas.
Architecture equals structure. Design is also important, but structure is the basis of architecture.
By taking the good aspects of both traditional and conventional construction methods, we assemble it securely...So the reason we lay out the marking lines, and carve by hand, is to utilize the good aspects of wood framing from the past when building contemporary wood-framed structures.