Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
Primer A Film by Shane Carruth www.imdb.com A normal wooden pencilSomething moreAt the top of the pageParanoiaHe had but to speak+1 More timetechnologyexperiments
A normal wooden pencil Aaron: You know that story about how NASA spent millions of dollars developing this pen that writes in Zero G? And how Russia solved the problem? Abe: Yeah, they used a pencil. problemscreativityconstraintscosmos
At the top of the page Here's what's going to happen. I'm gonna read this, and you're gonna listen, and you're gonna stay on the line. And you're not gonna interrupt, and you're not gonna speak for any reason. Some of this you know. I'm gonna start at the top of the page.
He had but to speak He had but to speak aloud the words that came into his head, and those around him would fall in line. wordscommunicationpersuasion
Like normal people Abe: What's wrong with our hands? Aaron: What do you mean? Abe: Why can't we write like normal people? Aaron: I don't know...I can see the letters. I know what they should look like, I just can't get my hand to make them. writing