Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
The Pleasure of Observing An Essay from Field Notes on Science and Nature by George B. Schaller AbbreviationBeyond dry factsA study should persistPrecious intangible valuesIndependent fragments of existence+1 More
Abbreviation I generally do not like to abbreviate behavioral notes. An important detail may be ignored or considered irrelevant and discarded because it lacks a discrete category on the list. It is often an anecdotal event that offers special insight.
Beyond dry facts If one has a personal knowledge of the individual animals being studied, observations in field notes cease to be impersonal, and an observer’s empathy can lead beyond dry facts to better intuition and insight.
A study should persist Since we cannot interview the subject, we can only infer the past from the present. Ideally, a study should persist for at least the life span of an animal. research
Independent fragments of existence You cannot divide me into independent fragments of existence. — The Last Panda, 1993 identity
Panda routes Show image 0 Show image 1 A detailed route of a panda foraging on bamboo shoots, showing the number of shoots eaten and droppings deposited (black spots) on May 31, 1982.