Heuristics That Almost Always Work An Article by Scott Alexander astralcodexten.substack.com Sometimes there’s a Heuristic That Almost Always Works, like “this technology won’t change everything” or “there won’t be a hurricane tomorrow”. And sometimes the rare exceptions are so important to spot that we charge experts with the task. But the heuristics are so hard to beat that the experts themselves might be tempted to secretly rely on them, while publicly pretending to use more subtle forms of expertise. …Maybe this is because the experts are stupid and lazy. Or maybe it’s social pressure: failure because you didn’t follow a well-known heuristic that even a rock can get right is more humiliating than failure because you didn’t predict a subtle phenomenon that nobody else predicted either. Or maybe it’s because false positives are more common (albeit less important) than false negatives, and so over any “reasonable” timescale the people who never give false positives look more accurate and get selected for. expertiseheuristicsprediction
The trend is your friend 'til the bend at the end A Fragment by Noah Smith noahpinion.substack.com In the past, GDP and resources use have always been tightly correlated. But this is just drawing a line through some data — it’s not based on any deep theory. And in fact, these correlations can change very quickly. Just as one example, here’s energy use versus GDP since 1949. If you were sitting in 1970, you could look at this curve and claim, very confidently, that economic growth requires concomitant increases in energy use. And you’d be wrong. Because the trend is your friend til the bend at the end. datastatisticspredictioneconomics
Field Notes on Science and Nature A Book by Michael R. Canfield www.hup.harvard.edu An endless living worldWhy Sketch?Letters to the FutureOne and a Half Cheers for List-KeepingLinking Researchers Across Generations+8 More The Student, The Fish, and Agassiz
An endless living world If there is a heaven, and I am allowed entrance, I will ask for no more than an endless living world to walk through and explore. learningnaturereligionwalking
Why Sketch? An Essay by Jenny Keller What you have observed closelyA single imageParallel refinementColor reproductionThe negative spaces+4 More Conversational drawingThe Beauty of the Overlooked
Letters to the Future An Essay by John D. Perrine & James L. Patton The lapse of many yearsThe Grinnell SystemJim's systemJohn's systemRecord them all+3 More
One and a Half Cheers for List-Keeping An Essay by Kenn Kaufman I don't need that birdList-chasingThe maximization method
Linking Researchers Across Generations An Essay by Anna K. Behrensmeyer Future valueTime capsulesTools of the digital ageFive basic rulesBonewalks+1 More
Why Keep a Field Notebook? An Essay by Erick Greene Pick one thingLab notebooksHybrid journalsA fertile incubatorBest practices
The Spoken and the Unspoken An Essay by Karen L. Kramer What is unspokenResearch questionsQuantitative data collectionAnthropological rapportScan samples, focal follows+4 More The observer effect
Note-Taking for Pencilophobes An Essay by Piotr Naskrecki MantisAn extension of my brainRecordingsThe era of paper
The Evolution and Fate of Botanical Field Books An Essay by James L. Reveal To serve as a reminderSterile creaturesFurther and further away
The Pleasure of Observing An Essay by George B. Schaller AbbreviationBeyond dry factsA study should persistPrecious intangible valuesIndependent fragments of existence+1 More
In the Eye of the Beholder An Essay by Jonathan Kingdon Haven't you noticed?Wordless questioningOutlinesAgents of thought and experiment
Untangling the Bank An Essay by Bernd Heinrich Specific aimsMore than a witnessPeculiaritiesSecrecyIf it wasn't written down+1 More
A Reflection of the Truth An Essay by Roger Kitching The need to recordMental infrastructureScientific writingA three-layered process of documentationIncidental details+1 More