Heuristics That Almost Always Work An Article by Scott Alexander astralcodexten.substack.com Sometimes there’s a Heuristic That Almost Always Works, like “this technology won’t change everything” or “there won’t be a hurricane tomorrow”. And sometimes the rare exceptions are so important to spot that we charge experts with the task. But the heuristics are so hard to beat that the experts themselves might be tempted to secretly rely on them, while publicly pretending to use more subtle forms of expertise. …Maybe this is because the experts are stupid and lazy. Or maybe it’s social pressure: failure because you didn’t follow a well-known heuristic that even a rock can get right is more humiliating than failure because you didn’t predict a subtle phenomenon that nobody else predicted either. Or maybe it’s because false positives are more common (albeit less important) than false negatives, and so over any “reasonable” timescale the people who never give false positives look more accurate and get selected for. expertiseheuristicsprediction
The trend is your friend 'til the bend at the end A Fragment by Noah Smith noahpinion.substack.com In the past, GDP and resources use have always been tightly correlated. But this is just drawing a line through some data — it’s not based on any deep theory. And in fact, these correlations can change very quickly. Just as one example, here’s energy use versus GDP since 1949. If you were sitting in 1970, you could look at this curve and claim, very confidently, that economic growth requires concomitant increases in energy use. And you’d be wrong. Because the trend is your friend til the bend at the end. datastatisticspredictioneconomics
Questions to ask on a new job search An Article by Sally Lait sallylait.com The role and expectations What does this job entail? What's driving the hire? What are the biggest challenges? What scope is there to do x, y, z? How/when/why would you consider hiring me to be successful? What does progression from here look like? What's the biggest mistake I could make? The wider business Can you tell me a bit about the company? What about the culture? How does diversity, equity, and inclusion play into this? What's the most exciting thing on the company horizon? What's been the impact of COVID-19 on company finances/strategy? What are the best and worst things about working here? Day to day What's the size/structure of the team I'd be around/have reporting to me? Which other people would I work most closely with? What technologies/tools would I work with? What could I do that would make your life easier? The practical bits What salary are you offering for this role? Additional package/benefits How do you approach distributed working, and is there scope for this? What timescales are you hoping for? Holiday Job title Give yourself an extra shot: Is there anything I've said today that makes you hesitate? work