Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
Heuristics That Almost Always Work An Article by Scott Alexander astralcodexten.substack.com Sometimes there’s a Heuristic That Almost Always Works, like “this technology won’t change everything” or “there won’t be a hurricane tomorrow”. And sometimes the rare exceptions are so important to spot that we charge experts with the task. But the heuristics are so hard to beat that the experts themselves might be tempted to secretly rely on them, while publicly pretending to use more subtle forms of expertise. …Maybe this is because the experts are stupid and lazy. Or maybe it’s social pressure: failure because you didn’t follow a well-known heuristic that even a rock can get right is more humiliating than failure because you didn’t predict a subtle phenomenon that nobody else predicted either. Or maybe it’s because false positives are more common (albeit less important) than false negatives, and so over any “reasonable” timescale the people who never give false positives look more accurate and get selected for. expertiseheuristicsprediction
Some thoughts on writing An Essay by Dan Luu danluu.com Besides being unlikely to work for you even if someone is able to describe what makes their writing tick, most advice is written by people who don't understand how their writing works. This may be difficult to see for writing if you haven't spent a lot of time analyzing writing, but it's easy to see this is true if you've taken a bunch of dance classes or had sports instruction that isn't from a very good coach. If you watch, for example, the median dance instructor and listen to their instructions, you'll see that their instructions are quite different from what they actually do. People who listen and follow instructions instead of attempting to copy what the instructor is doing will end up doing the thing completely wrong. Most writing advice similarly fails to capture what's important. The superficial aspects of what someone else is doingThings that increase popularity that I generally don't do writinglearningexpertise
Questions to ask on a new job search An Article by Sally Lait sallylait.com The role and expectations What does this job entail? What's driving the hire? What are the biggest challenges? What scope is there to do x, y, z? How/when/why would you consider hiring me to be successful? What does progression from here look like? What's the biggest mistake I could make? The wider business Can you tell me a bit about the company? What about the culture? How does diversity, equity, and inclusion play into this? What's the most exciting thing on the company horizon? What's been the impact of COVID-19 on company finances/strategy? What are the best and worst things about working here? Day to day What's the size/structure of the team I'd be around/have reporting to me? Which other people would I work most closely with? What technologies/tools would I work with? What could I do that would make your life easier? The practical bits What salary are you offering for this role? Additional package/benefits How do you approach distributed working, and is there scope for this? What timescales are you hoping for? Holiday Job title Give yourself an extra shot: Is there anything I've said today that makes you hesitate? work