Heuristics That Almost Always Work An Article by Scott Alexander astralcodexten.substack.com Sometimes there’s a Heuristic That Almost Always Works, like “this technology won’t change everything” or “there won’t be a hurricane tomorrow”. And sometimes the rare exceptions are so important to spot that we charge experts with the task. But the heuristics are so hard to beat that the experts themselves might be tempted to secretly rely on them, while publicly pretending to use more subtle forms of expertise. …Maybe this is because the experts are stupid and lazy. Or maybe it’s social pressure: failure because you didn’t follow a well-known heuristic that even a rock can get right is more humiliating than failure because you didn’t predict a subtle phenomenon that nobody else predicted either. Or maybe it’s because false positives are more common (albeit less important) than false negatives, and so over any “reasonable” timescale the people who never give false positives look more accurate and get selected for. expertiseheuristicsprediction
Japanese Death Poems A Book by Yoel Hoffman www.goodreads.com The haikuSpring snowAn entrance, an exitPoppiesCoolness will rise+4 More Graceful Exits: How Great Beings DiePoems of an Indian summerHe only who has lived with the beautiful deathpoetrynaturemelancholyzen
The haiku The haiku describes a single state or event. The time of the haiku is the present. The haiku refers to images connected to one of the four seasons, poetry
An entrance, an exit Empty-handed I entered the world Barefoot I leave it My coming, my going Two simple happenings That got entangled death
Coolness will rise When you have vanquished your selfhood, coolness will rise even from the fire. identity
The way of things It is when one forces principles on the world that one interferes with its natural workings. How things ought to be wisdomnature
Autumn breezes blow One day you are born you die the next – today, at twilight, autumn breezes blow. zen