Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
Like trying to cure obesity by loosening your belt “Trying to cure traffic congestion by adding more capacity is like trying to cure obesity by loosening your belt.” Andres Duany, Elizabeth Plater-Zyberk & Jeff Speck, Suburban Nation Induced demand transportation