Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
Complete and consistent requirements An architect who needs complete and consistent requirements to begin work, though perhaps a brilliant builder, is not an architect. Mark W. Maier & Eberhardt Rechtin, The Art of Systems Architecting What the problem isThe heart of systems engineeringA late change in requirements is a competitive advantage architecturedesign