Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
Design with courage Make a bold decision (that is controversial). Make a mistake (as a result of a bold decision). Challenge “conventional wisdom”. Challenge authority (that preaches conventional wisdom). Challenge hierarchy (that perpetuates conventional wisdom). Ignore the committee (and the need to converge). Decide who your clients are (and aren’t). Ignore clients that aren’t (especially those who pay the most). Cultivate clients if none exists (instead of compromising your design). Be a generalist (and ignore your job title). Be a specialist (who specializes in being a generalist). Design things from scratch (and build them yourself from scratch). Design things that no one wants (yet). Design freely (and think freely). Chuánqí Sun, The vanishing designer The boldest decisions design