Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
Heuristics That Almost Always Work An Article by Scott Alexander astralcodexten.substack.com Sometimes there’s a Heuristic That Almost Always Works, like “this technology won’t change everything” or “there won’t be a hurricane tomorrow”. And sometimes the rare exceptions are so important to spot that we charge experts with the task. But the heuristics are so hard to beat that the experts themselves might be tempted to secretly rely on them, while publicly pretending to use more subtle forms of expertise. …Maybe this is because the experts are stupid and lazy. Or maybe it’s social pressure: failure because you didn’t follow a well-known heuristic that even a rock can get right is more humiliating than failure because you didn’t predict a subtle phenomenon that nobody else predicted either. Or maybe it’s because false positives are more common (albeit less important) than false negatives, and so over any “reasonable” timescale the people who never give false positives look more accurate and get selected for. expertiseheuristicsprediction
Some thoughts on writing An Essay by Dan Luu danluu.com Besides being unlikely to work for you even if someone is able to describe what makes their writing tick, most advice is written by people who don't understand how their writing works. This may be difficult to see for writing if you haven't spent a lot of time analyzing writing, but it's easy to see this is true if you've taken a bunch of dance classes or had sports instruction that isn't from a very good coach. If you watch, for example, the median dance instructor and listen to their instructions, you'll see that their instructions are quite different from what they actually do. People who listen and follow instructions instead of attempting to copy what the instructor is doing will end up doing the thing completely wrong. Most writing advice similarly fails to capture what's important. The superficial aspects of what someone else is doingThings that increase popularity that I generally don't do writinglearningexpertise
Deadlines are bullshit An Article contrariantruth.substack.com In software development deadlines are a necessary evil. It is important to understand when they are necessary, and it is important to understand why they are evil. External vs. internal deadlinesWhy are internal deadlines evil?Engineers who love their work Hofstadter's LawThe Thing-deadline calculusNever enough timeDriving engineers to an arbitrary date is a value destroying mistake bureaucracysoftwareprocesswork
External vs. internal deadlines When are deadlines necessary? Contractual obligations Technical liabilities (e.g., dependency EOL) Compliance, government, investors, and other external stakeholders What do all of these deadlines have in common? They are all important. They are all deadlines that cannot be missed. They are all external. When are deadlines evil? Your manager says you have a deadline Your software development methodology says you have deadlines What do all of these deadlines have in common? None of them are important. They are arbitrary. They are all internal. They are all bullshit.
Why are internal deadlines evil? Estimation: When estimating engineering work a substantial time investment is required by an engineer in order to get an accurate estimate. Misaligned Incentives: There is an incentive to lie and give estimates much longer than the feature is truly expected to take. Low Morale: Deadlines are likely to be missed often. Repeated failure has a cost to the morale of the team. Micromanagement: Deadlines are wielded by middle managers as a whip to harass and annoy engineers working on features. High Stress: When engineers feel the pressure of other stakeholders holding deadlines over their heads it creates an environment of high stress. High Turnover: On teams with high turnover rates the best engineers have an easy time finding new work and leave quickly, the worst engineers have a difficult time finding work and remain. This selects for a lower quality team over time.
Engineers who love their work The resolution is simple. Never have internal deadlines. Operate on a prioritized and ordered list of features. Estimate only when necessary to prioritize and do so in a t-shirt sizing way. Trust your engineers and they will begin to love their work. Engineers who love their work are happy and productive. Building is never a straight line