Heuristics That Almost Always Work An Article by Scott Alexander astralcodexten.substack.com Sometimes there’s a Heuristic That Almost Always Works, like “this technology won’t change everything” or “there won’t be a hurricane tomorrow”. And sometimes the rare exceptions are so important to spot that we charge experts with the task. But the heuristics are so hard to beat that the experts themselves might be tempted to secretly rely on them, while publicly pretending to use more subtle forms of expertise. …Maybe this is because the experts are stupid and lazy. Or maybe it’s social pressure: failure because you didn’t follow a well-known heuristic that even a rock can get right is more humiliating than failure because you didn’t predict a subtle phenomenon that nobody else predicted either. Or maybe it’s because false positives are more common (albeit less important) than false negatives, and so over any “reasonable” timescale the people who never give false positives look more accurate and get selected for. expertiseheuristicsprediction
Chazen Museum of Art A Gallery chazen.wisc.edu The Chazen’s expansive two-building site holds the second-largest collection of art in Wisconsin, and is the largest collecting museum in the Big 10. MeltdownEmpty Every Night art
Meltdown Show image 0 Show image 1 Show image 2 I created Meltdown in 2012, inspired by the 2011 earthquake in Japan. The earthquake caused an enormous tsunami, which struck and demolished the nuclear power plant in Fukushima, Japan. A massive amount of radiation was released and contaminated the environment. Ikeda Manabu chazen.wisc.edu The castle takes flight