Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
Cutting through to the truth The essential thing in the art of epistemic rationality is to understand how every rule is cutting through to the truth in the same movement. Your sword has no blade. It has only your intention. When that goes astray you have no weapon. Eliezer Yudkowsky, Rationality: From AI to Zombies Your intention to cut intent