Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
Welcome to class An Essay by Bill Tozier vaguery.com I differ from almost all your previous instructors in three ways: First, I acknowledge that this is true, whereas they have for the most part lied to you (and themselves) and declared you competent, even though they’ve had to re-train you from scratch in every damned class. Second, unlike them I intend to do something about it. And, third, in order to do something about it, I will let you—no, make you—cheat. teaching