Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
The fastest way to learn something is to do something An Article by David R. MacIver notebook.drmaciver.com Suppose you have a problem to solve. What do you do? Well, you sit down and think real hard, and after extensive and careful planning you try the well thought out and rigorous solution that you have thought up. Right? No, wrong! Bad. The correct thing to do when you have a problem is: Think for a short amount of time. Make sure it is safe to try things. Try something you think will work. Observe the result. If you succeeded, yay you solved the problem! If it didn't work, think about what that means for the nature of the problem and try again. The Feynman Algorithm problemsprototypesfeedback