Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
More real than living man He will watch from dawn to gloom The lake reflected sun illume The yellow bees in the ivy-bloom Nor heed, nor see, what things they be; But from these create he can Forms more real than living man. Percy Bysshe Shelley, Prometheus Unbound The Nature and Aesthetics of Design making