Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
A concept of style It is a concept based not on the classification of various physical features of architecture and urban design but on the problem-solving process itself. We have seen that the final outcome of a design process is strongly determined by at least three aspects of that process: the subject matter of the organizing principles which are adopted, the manner in which these principles are interpreted and reinterpreted in the context of the problem at hand, and the sequent of applying such organizing principles. Consistency in style among the output of designers can thus be understood as a habitual way of doing things, of solving problems. Peter G. Rowe, Design Thinking It was all change until the very last second style