Theory of Change An Essay by Aaron Swartz www.aaronsw.com A theory of change is the opposite of a theory of action — it works backwards from the goal, in concrete steps, to figure out what you can do to achieve it. To develop a theory of change, you need to start at the end and repeatedly ask yourself, “Concretely, how does one achieve that?” changegoals
The ordering of steps The ordering of steps is based on the following concept: that as each step progresses and the design is further detailed, there is an iteration with the preceding and succeeding steps but rarely with the more remote steps in the sequence...what we have is an effective fallback position that tends to maximize the extent of early work that is salvageable and preserved. Winston W. Royce, Managing the Development of Large Software Systems The rational model of design