Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
The illustrated guide to a Ph.D. An Article by Matt Might matt.might.net Show image 0 Show image 1 Imagine a circle that contains all of human knowledge. By the time you finish elementary school, you know a little. By the time you finish high school, you know a bit more. With a bachelor's degree, you gain a specialty. A master's degree deepens that specialty: Reading research papers takes you to the edge of human knowledge. Once you're at the boundary, you focus. You push at the boundary for a few years. Until one day, the boundary gives way. And, that dent you've made is called a Ph.D.. Of course, the world looks different to you now. So, don't forget the bigger picture. Keep pushing. knowledgescienceprogressresearch