Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
Colophon airtable stores the majority of the content for the site. the front-end is written using svelte and its companion toolset, sveltekit. it is hosted as a digital ocean app. figma was used for some of the design – the rest was done in code (as I increasingly believe it should be). it is typeset with IBM plex sans Nick Trombley, barnsworthburning.net Designing with code