Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
Clues for software design in how we sketch maps of cities An Article by Matt Webb interconnected.org Given there’s an explosion in software to accrete and organise knowledge, is the page model really the best approach? Perhaps the building blocks shouldn’t be pages or blocks, but neighbourhoods roads rooms and doors landmarks. Or rather, as a knowledge base or wiki develops, it should - just like a real city - encourage its users to gravitate towards these different fundamental elements. A page that starts to function a little bit like a road should transform into a slick navigation element, available on all its linked pages. A page which is functioning like a landmark should start being visible from two hops away. The Image of the City urbanismcitiessoftwareunderstanding