Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
Blessed by the four elements The Indian stone temple also included, in its architectural form, the means for being blessed by the four elements—earth, wind, water, fire. Before entering the temple gates, one removed one's shoes to touch and be blessed by the earth. Then upon passing through the temple gateway, one is blessed by the air with a gust of wind. A blessing by water is obtained by bathing in the temple tank, or at least descending its steps to touch the water. Finally, on entering the cool interior of the sanctuary, the worshipper is given a mark on the forehead with ashes taken from a sacred flame by an attendant priest. Even this blessing by fire has a slight cooling sensation to it. Perhaps it is only coincidental that each of these four blessings is associated with a cooling sensation; and yet, the use of forms and materials that inevitably create coolness is quite remarkable. Lisa Heschong, Thermal Delight in Architecture Avatar: The Last AirbenderThe Legend of KorraA hierarchical system of sense elements