Tetlock and the Taliban An Essay by Richard Hanania richardhanania.substack.com How a humiliating military loss proves that so much of our so-called "expertise" is fake, and the case against specialization and intellectual diversity. The lesson of Tetlock (and the Afghanistan War), is that while you certainly shouldn’t be getting all your information from your uncle’s Facebook Wall, there is no reason to start with a strong prior that people with medical degrees know more than any intelligent person who honestly looks at the available data. What excellence is experienceacademiaexpertise
239. Small Panes Problem When plate glass windows became possible, people thought that they would put us more directly in touch with nature. In fact, they do the opposite. Solution Divide each window into small panes. These panes can be very small indeed, and should hardly ever be more than a foot square. To get the exact size of the panes, divide the width and height of the window by the number of panes. Then each window will have different sized panes according to its height and width. Christopher Alexander, Murray Silverstein & Sara Ishikawa, A Pattern Language Einmal Ist KeinmalProtected, yet tuned inWe have lost our sense of intimate life windows